Surprisingly, they are evenly matched. I say “surprisingly” because for all intents and purposes, hawlucha has more of an edge. It’s smaller, faster, and more nimble, not to mention it possesses a type advantage against incineroar. Yet for reasons that are as of yet not well understood by researchers, incineroar often matches hawlucha move-for-move on the battlefield through the use of sheer size and brute force alone.
It’s even led some researchers to believe that the two merely stage matches, rather than go into them with the intent of actually fighting, but there is understandably quite a bit of debate about that point.